Press Release
秘密直播 APL Experts Explain Why Social Distancing Is Critical to Flattening the Coronavirus Curve
In an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19, two phrases have been thrust into the worldwide lexicon: social distancing and flattening the curve. As the U.S. contends with the exponential growth of the virus, and testing and treatments race to catch up, public health experts are shouting these proactive measures from the rooftops.
Underscoring their plea, a graph the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention created 13 years ago to describe these measures was given new life on social media and in newsroom animations. The two phrases have become a rallying call, and an instructive tool on how humanity can work together to mitigate this pandemic鈥檚 impacts.
Social distancing, avoiding contact closer than six feet with anyone who doesn鈥檛 live in your home, aims to reduce opportunities to transmit the virus between parties and, as a result, flatten the curve (slowing its spread to prevent illness surges that could overwhelm health care systems). But why are social distancing and flattening the curve so important?
鈥淪ocial distancing decreases the number of interactions potentially infected individuals have with the susceptible population: everyone else,鈥 explained Claire Marie Filone, a virologist with expertise in biodefense and emerging infectious diseases at the 秘密直播 Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland. 鈥淭his measure is particularly important when asymptomatic individuals are infectious. They feel fine, but they鈥檙e transmitting the virus. If an infectious person interacts with fewer individuals, there鈥檚 a smaller chance of passing the virus and furthering the outbreak.鈥
鈥淭rying to flatten the curve is important because a huge spike in cases per day, as indicated by the graph鈥檚 first peak, will overwhelm our under-prepared health care system,鈥 she continued. 鈥淲e flatten it by practicing social distancing.鈥
It sounds simple. And it鈥檚 easy to hope that taking the measures many states have 鈥 closing schools, restaurants and bars, or canceling sporting events and stadium gatherings 鈥 will stop the virus鈥 transmission. They won鈥檛.
鈥淔lattening the curve is not a cure,鈥 Filone said. 鈥淭he virus will still spread through the community, just at a slower pace.
鈥淲e are protecting the institutions that keep us safe 鈥 our hospitals and health care infrastructure, as well as front-line workers and others who interact with the community daily. Flattening the curve extends the amount of time we see steady, though hopefully slower, increases in infections per day.鈥
Jared Evans, a molecular virologist at APL who has expertise in emerging infectious diseases, added: 鈥淭he number of trained health care personnel is lower than what would be required to handle the number of ill at the peak. Social distancing and, as a result, flattening the curve, allows efforts to move from a defensive posture to a more proactive one where we can fully understand the virus, its infectivity, transmissibility, and outcomes of infection to more effectively treat and stop it.鈥
It鈥檚 in part why actions viewed as drastic are integral, but not the sole focus.
"Community interventions like event closures play an important role," Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist from the 秘密直播 Center for Health Security, told the Hub, the news center for 秘密直播 University. 鈥淏ut individual behavior changes are even more important. Individual actions are humble but powerful."
One thing to remember, Filone noted, is that overwhelming the health care system doesn鈥檛 just affect patients infected with COVID-19. By reducing the exponential growth of the virus, providers will be able to deliver continuing care for pediatric and maternal patients, cancer patients, and other emergent situations like heart attacks, car accidents and much more.
鈥淪lowing the spread of the virus allows us to prepare,鈥 she said. 鈥淚t allows us to create and produce more diagnostic tests, try new treatments and, eventually, evaluate and produce vaccines.鈥
Unfortunately, one thing public health experts cannot be sure of at this point is how long it will take 鈥 and how much social distancing will be required 鈥 to effectively flatten the curve.
鈥淭he more people who participate, the sooner plans can take hold and, hopefully, the sooner the curve can flatten,鈥 Evans said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 certainly disruptive, but it may give researchers the time we need to significantly decrease the overall impact of the virus in the U.S.鈥
鈥淎s the numbers increase exponentially with expanded testing, we must remember that this indicates prior infections and patterns of spread 鈥 which have gone undiagnosed for weeks 鈥 as well as current spread in the community,鈥 Filone added. 鈥淏ut we need the data to understand where each part of the country is on that curve currently, pre- or post-intervention with social distancing.鈥
In the meantime, Filone and Evans stressed that avoiding panic is important, as is viewing the current measures as a way to assist your community as opposed to a punishment. They also agreed it鈥檚 imperative to take proper precautions, like washing your hands and cleaning surfaces, and to think rationally about food- and supply-buying behaviors.
鈥淐heck on your loved ones and neighbors and see how they鈥檙e doing 鈥 while adhering to social distancing, of course,鈥 Evans said. 鈥淓veryone is in this together, and observing recommended public health measures improves the outlook for us all.鈥
Many researchers at APL are working to support the U.S. response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
In the absence of sufficient, widespread testing, a public health electronic surveillance tool developed by APL is helping to fill gaps by tracking the virus鈥 spread symptomatically; data analytics efforts in aiding the Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS) for sequencing of COVID-19 samples at 秘密直播 Hospital are underway; and staff members are assisting in data cleaning and processing, as well as assurance, with .